Daily Papers

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a weight sharing scheme inspired from restricted Boltzmann machines, to yield an estimator that is both tractable and has good generalization performance. We discuss how they achieve competitive performance in modeling both binary and real-valued observations. We also present how deep NADE models can be trained to be agnostic to the ordering of input dimensions used by the autoregressive product rule decomposition. Finally, we also show how to exploit the topological structure of pixels in images using a deep convolutional architecture for NADE.

It is believed that in knowledge distillation (KD), the role of the teacher is to provide an estimate for the unknown Bayes conditional probability distribution (BCPD) to be used in the student training process. Conventionally, this estimate is obtained by training the teacher using maximum log-likelihood (MLL) method. To improve this estimate for KD, in this paper we introduce the concept of conditional mutual information (CMI) into the estimation of BCPD and propose a novel estimator called the maximum CMI (MCMI) method. Specifically, in MCMI estimation, both the log-likelihood and CMI of the teacher are simultaneously maximized when the teacher is trained. Through Eigen-CAM, it is further shown that maximizing the teacher's CMI value allows the teacher to capture more contextual information in an image cluster. Via conducting a thorough set of experiments, we show that by employing a teacher trained via MCMI estimation rather than one trained via MLL estimation in various state-of-the-art KD frameworks, the student's classification accuracy consistently increases, with the gain of up to 3.32\%. This suggests that the teacher's BCPD estimate provided by MCMI method is more accurate than that provided by MLL method. In addition, we show that such improvements in the student's accuracy are more drastic in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, the student's accuracy increases with the gain of up to 5.72\% when 5\% of the training samples are available to the student (few-shot), and increases from 0\% to as high as 84\% for an omitted class (zero-shot). The code is available at https://github.com/iclr2024mcmi/ICLRMCMI.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art performance in various generation tasks. However, their theoretical foundations fall far behind. This paper studies score approximation, estimation, and distribution recovery of diffusion models, when data are supported on an unknown low-dimensional linear subspace. Our result provides sample complexity bounds for distribution estimation using diffusion models. We show that with a properly chosen neural network architecture, the score function can be both accurately approximated and efficiently estimated. Furthermore, the generated distribution based on the estimated score function captures the data geometric structures and converges to a close vicinity of the data distribution. The convergence rate depends on the subspace dimension, indicating that diffusion models can circumvent the curse of data ambient dimensionality.

Data imbalance and open-ended distribution are two intrinsic characteristics of the real visual world. Though encouraging progress has been made in tackling each challenge separately, few works dedicated to combining them towards real-world scenarios. While several previous works have focused on classifying close-set samples and detecting open-set samples during testing, it's still essential to be able to classify unknown subjects as human beings. In this paper, we formally define a more realistic task as distribution-agnostic generalized category discovery (DA-GCD): generating fine-grained predictions for both close- and open-set classes in a long-tailed open-world setting. To tackle the challenging problem, we propose a Self-Balanced Co-Advice contrastive framework (BaCon), which consists of a contrastive-learning branch and a pseudo-labeling branch, working collaboratively to provide interactive supervision to resolve the DA-GCD task. In particular, the contrastive-learning branch provides reliable distribution estimation to regularize the predictions of the pseudo-labeling branch, which in turn guides contrastive learning through self-balanced knowledge transfer and a proposed novel contrastive loss. We compare BaCon with state-of-the-art methods from two closely related fields: imbalanced semi-supervised learning and generalized category discovery. The effectiveness of BaCon is demonstrated with superior performance over all baselines and comprehensive analysis across various datasets. Our code is publicly available.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Mixture models are traditionally represented and learned by adding several distributions as components. Allowing mixtures to subtract probability mass or density can drastically reduce the number of components needed to model complex distributions. However, learning such subtractive mixtures while ensuring they still encode a non-negative function is challenging. We investigate how to learn and perform inference on deep subtractive mixtures by squaring them. We do this in the framework of probabilistic circuits, which enable us to represent tensorized mixtures and generalize several other subtractive models. We theoretically prove that the class of squared circuits allowing subtractions can be exponentially more expressive than traditional additive mixtures; and, we empirically show this increased expressiveness on a series of real-world distribution estimation tasks.

Bayesian deep learning counts on the quality of posterior distribution estimation. However, the posterior of deep neural networks is highly multi-modal in nature, with local modes exhibiting varying generalization performance. Given a practical budget, targeting at the original posterior can lead to suboptimal performance, as some samples may become trapped in "bad" modes and suffer from overfitting. Leveraging the observation that "good" modes with low generalization error often reside in flat basins of the energy landscape, we propose to bias sampling on the posterior toward these flat regions. Specifically, we introduce an auxiliary guiding variable, the stationary distribution of which resembles a smoothed posterior free from sharp modes, to lead the MCMC sampler to flat basins. By integrating this guiding variable with the model parameter, we create a simple joint distribution that enables efficient sampling with minimal computational overhead. We prove the convergence of our method and further show that it converges faster than several existing flatness-aware methods in the strongly convex setting. Empirical results demonstrate that our method can successfully sample from flat basins of the posterior, and outperforms all compared baselines on multiple benchmarks including classification, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection.

This paper investigates the utility gain of using Iterative Bayesian Update (IBU) for private discrete distribution estimation using data obfuscated with Locally Differentially Private (LDP) mechanisms. We compare the performance of IBU to Matrix Inversion (MI), a standard estimation technique, for seven LDP mechanisms designed for one-time data collection and for other seven LDP mechanisms designed for multiple data collections (e.g., RAPPOR). To broaden the scope of our study, we also varied the utility metric, the number of users n, the domain size k, and the privacy parameter ε, using both synthetic and real-world data. Our results suggest that IBU can be a useful post-processing tool for improving the utility of LDP mechanisms in different scenarios without any additional privacy cost. For instance, our experiments show that IBU can provide better utility than MI, especially in high privacy regimes (i.e., when ε is small). Our paper provides insights for practitioners to use IBU in conjunction with existing LDP mechanisms for more accurate and privacy-preserving data analysis. Finally, we implemented IBU for all fourteen LDP mechanisms into the state-of-the-art multi-freq-ldpy Python package (https://pypi.org/project/multi-freq-ldpy/) and open-sourced all our code used for the experiments as tutorials.

Conventional federated learning (FL) frameworks follow a server-driven model where the server determines session initiation and client participation, which faces challenges in accommodating clients' asynchronous needs for model updates. We introduce Client-Driven Federated Learning (CDFL), a novel FL framework that puts clients at the driving role. In CDFL, each client independently and asynchronously updates its model by uploading the locally trained model to the server and receiving a customized model tailored to its local task. The server maintains a repository of cluster models, iteratively refining them using received client models. Our framework accommodates complex dynamics in clients' data distributions, characterized by time-varying mixtures of cluster distributions, enabling rapid adaptation to new tasks with superior performance. In contrast to traditional clustered FL protocols that send multiple cluster models to a client to perform distribution estimation, we propose a paradigm that offloads the estimation task to the server and only sends a single model to a client, and novel strategies to improve estimation accuracy. We provide a theoretical analysis of CDFL's convergence. Extensive experiments across various datasets and system settings highlight CDFL's substantial advantages in model performance and computation efficiency over baselines.

Open World Object Detection (OWOD) is a new and challenging computer vision task that bridges the gap between classic object detection (OD) benchmarks and object detection in the real world. In addition to detecting and classifying seen/labeled objects, OWOD algorithms are expected to detect novel/unknown objects - which can be classified and incrementally learned. In standard OD, object proposals not overlapping with a labeled object are automatically classified as background. Therefore, simply applying OD methods to OWOD fails as unknown objects would be predicted as background. The challenge of detecting unknown objects stems from the lack of supervision in distinguishing unknown objects and background object proposals. Previous OWOD methods have attempted to overcome this issue by generating supervision using pseudo-labeling - however, unknown object detection has remained low. Probabilistic/generative models may provide a solution for this challenge. Herein, we introduce a novel probabilistic framework for objectness estimation, where we alternate between probability distribution estimation and objectness likelihood maximization of known objects in the embedded feature space - ultimately allowing us to estimate the objectness probability of different proposals. The resulting Probabilistic Objectness transformer-based open-world detector, PROB, integrates our framework into traditional object detection models, adapting them for the open-world setting. Comprehensive experiments on OWOD benchmarks show that PROB outperforms all existing OWOD methods in both unknown object detection (sim 2times unknown recall) and known object detection (sim 10% mAP). Our code will be made available upon publication at https://github.com/orrzohar/PROB.

In this study, we investigate the DIstribution Correction Estimation (DICE) methods, an important line of work in offline reinforcement learning (RL) and imitation learning (IL). DICE-based methods impose state-action-level behavior constraint, which is an ideal choice for offline learning. However, they typically perform much worse than current state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods that solely use action-level behavior constraint. After revisiting DICE-based methods, we find there exist two gradient terms when learning the value function using true-gradient update: forward gradient (taken on the current state) and backward gradient (taken on the next state). Using forward gradient bears a large similarity to many offline RL methods, and thus can be regarded as applying action-level constraint. However, directly adding the backward gradient may degenerate or cancel out its effect if these two gradients have conflicting directions. To resolve this issue, we propose a simple yet effective modification that projects the backward gradient onto the normal plane of the forward gradient, resulting in an orthogonal-gradient update, a new learning rule for DICE-based methods. We conduct thorough theoretical analyses and find that the projected backward gradient brings state-level behavior regularization, which reveals the mystery of DICE-based methods: the value learning objective does try to impose state-action-level constraint, but needs to be used in a corrected way. Through toy examples and extensive experiments on complex offline RL and IL tasks, we demonstrate that DICE-based methods using orthogonal-gradient updates (O-DICE) achieve SOTA performance and great robustness.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

Selecting an effective training signal for machine learning tasks is difficult: expert annotations are expensive, and crowd-sourced annotations may not be reliable. Recent work has demonstrated that learning from a distribution over labels acquired from crowd annotations can be effective both for performance and uncertainty estimation. However, this has mainly been studied using a limited set of soft-labeling methods in an in-domain setting. Additionally, no one method has been shown to consistently perform well across tasks, making it difficult to know a priori which to choose. To fill these gaps, this paper provides the first large-scale empirical study on learning from crowd labels in the out-of-domain setting, systematically analyzing 8 soft-labeling methods on 4 language and vision tasks. Additionally, we propose to aggregate soft-labels via a simple average in order to achieve consistent performance across tasks. We demonstrate that this yields classifiers with improved predictive uncertainty estimation in most settings while maintaining consistent raw performance compared to learning from individual soft-labeling methods or taking a majority vote of the annotations. We additionally highlight that in regimes with abundant or minimal training data, the selection of soft labeling method is less important, while for highly subjective labels and moderate amounts of training data, aggregation yields significant improvements in uncertainty estimation over individual methods. Code can be found at https://github.com/copenlu/aggregating-crowd-annotations-ood.

Quality Estimation (QE) models evaluate the quality of machine translations without reference translations, serving as the reward models for the translation task. Due to the data scarcity, synthetic data generation has emerged as a promising solution. However, synthetic QE data often suffers from distribution shift, which can manifest as discrepancies between pseudo and real translations, or in pseudo labels that do not align with human preferences. To tackle this issue, we introduce DCSQE, a novel framework for alleviating distribution shift in synthetic QE data. To reduce the difference between pseudo and real translations, we employ the constrained beam search algorithm and enhance translation diversity through the use of distinct generation models. DCSQE uses references, i.e., translation supervision signals, to guide both the generation and annotation processes, enhancing the quality of token-level labels. DCSQE further identifies the shortest phrase covering consecutive error tokens, mimicking human annotation behavior, to assign the final phrase-level labels. Specially, we underscore that the translation model can not annotate translations of itself accurately. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DCSQE outperforms SOTA baselines like CometKiwi in both supervised and unsupervised settings. Further analysis offers insights into synthetic data generation that could benefit reward models for other tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/NJUNLP/njuqe.

Post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has garnered intensive attention in reliable machine learning. Many efforts have been dedicated to deriving score functions based on logits, distances, or rigorous data distribution assumptions to identify low-scoring OOD samples. Nevertheless, these estimate scores may fail to accurately reflect the true data density or impose impractical constraints. To provide a unified perspective on density-based score design, we propose a novel theoretical framework grounded in Bregman divergence, which extends distribution considerations to encompass an exponential family of distributions. Leveraging the conjugation constraint revealed in our theorem, we introduce a ConjNorm method, reframing density function design as a search for the optimal norm coefficient p against the given dataset. In light of the computational challenges of normalization, we devise an unbiased and analytically tractable estimator of the partition function using the Monte Carlo-based importance sampling technique. Extensive experiments across OOD detection benchmarks empirically demonstrate that our proposed ConjNorm has established a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups, outperforming the current best method by up to 13.25% and 28.19% (FPR95) on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K, respectively.

In monocular depth estimation, uncertainty estimation approaches mainly target the data uncertainty introduced by image noise. In contrast to prior work, we address the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge, which is relevant for the detection of data not represented by the training distribution, the so-called out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Motivated by anomaly detection, we propose to detect OOD images from an encoder-decoder depth estimation model based on the reconstruction error. Given the features extracted with the fixed depth encoder, we train an image decoder for image reconstruction using only in-distribution data. Consequently, OOD images result in a high reconstruction error, which we use to distinguish between in- and out-of-distribution samples. We built our experiments on the standard NYU Depth V2 and KITTI benchmarks as in-distribution data. Our post hoc method performs astonishingly well on different models and outperforms existing uncertainty estimation approaches without modifying the trained encoder-decoder depth estimation model.

Human pose and shape (HPS) estimation methods achieve remarkable results. However, current HPS benchmarks are mostly designed to test models in scenarios that are similar to the training data. This can lead to critical situations in real-world applications when the observed data differs significantly from the training data and hence is out-of-distribution (OOD). It is therefore important to test and improve the OOD robustness of HPS methods. To address this fundamental problem, we develop a simulator that can be controlled in a fine-grained manner using interpretable parameters to explore the manifold of images of human pose, e.g. by varying poses, shapes, and clothes. We introduce a learning-based testing method, termed PoseExaminer, that automatically diagnoses HPS algorithms by searching over the parameter space of human pose images to find the failure modes. Our strategy for exploring this high-dimensional parameter space is a multi-agent reinforcement learning system, in which the agents collaborate to explore different parts of the parameter space. We show that our PoseExaminer discovers a variety of limitations in current state-of-the-art models that are relevant in real-world scenarios but are missed by current benchmarks. For example, it finds large regions of realistic human poses that are not predicted correctly, as well as reduced performance for humans with skinny and corpulent body shapes. In addition, we show that fine-tuning HPS methods by exploiting the failure modes found by PoseExaminer improve their robustness and even their performance on standard benchmarks by a significant margin. The code are available for research purposes.

Detecting out-of-distribution inputs for visual recognition models has become critical in safe deep learning. This paper proposes a novel hierarchical visual category modeling scheme to separate out-of-distribution data from in-distribution data through joint representation learning and statistical modeling. We learn a mixture of Gaussian models for each in-distribution category. There are many Gaussian mixture models to model different visual categories. With these Gaussian models, we design an in-distribution score function by aggregating multiple Mahalanobis-based metrics. We don't use any auxiliary outlier data as training samples, which may hurt the generalization ability of out-of-distribution detection algorithms. We split the ImageNet-1k dataset into ten folds randomly. We use one fold as the in-distribution dataset and the others as out-of-distribution datasets to evaluate the proposed method. We also conduct experiments on seven popular benchmarks, including CIFAR, iNaturalist, SUN, Places, Textures, ImageNet-O, and OpenImage-O. Extensive experiments indicate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms clearly. Meanwhile, we find that our visual representation has a competitive performance when compared with features learned by classical methods. These results demonstrate that the proposed method hasn't weakened the discriminative ability of visual recognition models and keeps high efficiency in detecting out-of-distribution samples.

We present a new loss function for joint disparity and uncertainty estimation in deep stereo matching. Our work is motivated by the need for precise uncertainty estimates and the observation that multi-task learning often leads to improved performance in all tasks. We show that this can be achieved by requiring the distribution of uncertainty to match the distribution of disparity errors via a KL divergence term in the network's loss function. A differentiable soft-histogramming technique is used to approximate the distributions so that they can be used in the loss. We experimentally assess the effectiveness of our approach and observe significant improvements in both disparity and uncertainty prediction on large datasets.

Accurate depth estimation under out-of-distribution (OoD) scenarios, such as adverse weather conditions, sensor failure, and noise contamination, is desirable for safety-critical applications. Existing depth estimation systems, however, suffer inevitably from real-world corruptions and perturbations and are struggled to provide reliable depth predictions under such cases. In this paper, we summarize the winning solutions from the RoboDepth Challenge -- an academic competition designed to facilitate and advance robust OoD depth estimation. This challenge was developed based on the newly established KITTI-C and NYUDepth2-C benchmarks. We hosted two stand-alone tracks, with an emphasis on robust self-supervised and robust fully-supervised depth estimation, respectively. Out of more than two hundred participants, nine unique and top-performing solutions have appeared, with novel designs ranging from the following aspects: spatial- and frequency-domain augmentations, masked image modeling, image restoration and super-resolution, adversarial training, diffusion-based noise suppression, vision-language pre-training, learned model ensembling, and hierarchical feature enhancement. Extensive experimental analyses along with insightful observations are drawn to better understand the rationale behind each design. We hope this challenge could lay a solid foundation for future research on robust and reliable depth estimation and beyond. The datasets, competition toolkit, workshop recordings, and source code from the winning teams are publicly available on the challenge website.

Open set label shift (OSLS) occurs when label distributions change from a source to a target distribution, and the target distribution has an additional out-of-distribution (OOD) class. In this work, we build estimators for both source and target open set label distributions using a source domain in-distribution (ID) classifier and an ID/OOD classifier. With reasonable assumptions on the ID/OOD classifier, the estimators are assembled into a sequence of three stages: 1) an estimate of the source label distribution of the OOD class, 2) an EM algorithm for Maximum Likelihood estimates (MLE) of the target label distribution, and 3) an estimate of the target label distribution of OOD class under relaxed assumptions on the OOD classifier. The sampling errors of estimates in 1) and 3) are quantified with a concentration inequality. The estimation result allows us to correct the ID classifier trained on the source distribution to the target distribution without retraining. Experiments on a variety of open set label shift settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our model. Our code is available at https://github.com/ChangkunYe/OpenSetLabelShift.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising direction for learning policies from pre-collected datasets without requiring further interactions with the environment. However, existing methods struggle to handle out-of-distribution (OOD) extrapolation errors, especially in sparse reward or scarce data settings. In this paper, we propose a novel training algorithm called Conservative Density Estimation (CDE), which addresses this challenge by explicitly imposing constraints on the state-action occupancy stationary distribution. CDE overcomes the limitations of existing approaches, such as the stationary distribution correction method, by addressing the support mismatch issue in marginal importance sampling. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the D4RL benchmark. Notably, CDE consistently outperforms baselines in challenging tasks with sparse rewards or insufficient data, demonstrating the advantages of our approach in addressing the extrapolation error problem in offline RL.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Deploying deep visual models can lead to performance drops due to the discrepancies between source and target distributions. Several approaches leverage labeled source data to estimate target domain accuracy, but accessing labeled source data is often prohibitively difficult due to data confidentiality or resource limitations on serving devices. Our work proposes a new framework to estimate model accuracy on unlabeled target data without access to source data. We investigate the feasibility of using pseudo-labels for accuracy estimation and evolve this idea into adopting recent advances in source-free domain adaptation algorithms. Our approach measures the disagreement rate between the source hypothesis and the target pseudo-labeling function, adapted from the source hypothesis. We mitigate the impact of erroneous pseudo-labels that may arise due to a high ideal joint hypothesis risk by employing adaptive adversarial perturbation on the input of the target model. Our proposed source-free framework effectively addresses the challenging distribution shift scenarios and outperforms existing methods requiring source data and labels for training.

This work studies the estimation of many statistical quantiles under differential privacy. More precisely, given a distribution and access to i.i.d. samples from it, we study the estimation of the inverse of its cumulative distribution function (the quantile function) at specific points. For instance, this task is of key importance in private data generation. We present two different approaches. The first one consists in privately estimating the empirical quantiles of the samples and using this result as an estimator of the quantiles of the distribution. In particular, we study the statistical properties of the recently published algorithm introduced by Kaplan et al. 2022 that privately estimates the quantiles recursively. The second approach is to use techniques of density estimation in order to uniformly estimate the quantile function on an interval. In particular, we show that there is a tradeoff between the two methods. When we want to estimate many quantiles, it is better to estimate the density rather than estimating the quantile function at specific points.

Traditionally, monocular 3D human pose estimation employs a machine learning model to predict the most likely 3D pose for a given input image. However, a single image can be highly ambiguous and induces multiple plausible solutions for the 2D-3D lifting step which results in overly confident 3D pose predictors. To this end, we propose DiffPose, a conditional diffusion model, that predicts multiple hypotheses for a given input image. In comparison to similar approaches, our diffusion model is straightforward and avoids intensive hyperparameter tuning, complex network structures, mode collapse, and unstable training. Moreover, we tackle a problem of the common two-step approach that first estimates a distribution of 2D joint locations via joint-wise heatmaps and consecutively approximates them based on first- or second-moment statistics. Since such a simplification of the heatmaps removes valid information about possibly correct, though labeled unlikely, joint locations, we propose to represent the heatmaps as a set of 2D joint candidate samples. To extract information about the original distribution from these samples we introduce our embedding transformer that conditions the diffusion model. Experimentally, we show that DiffPose slightly improves upon the state of the art for multi-hypothesis pose estimation for simple poses and outperforms it by a large margin for highly ambiguous poses.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

This paper addresses the problem of ranking pre-trained models for object detection and image classification. Selecting the best pre-trained model by fine-tuning is an expensive and time-consuming task. Previous works have proposed transferability estimation based on features extracted by the pre-trained models. We argue that quantifying whether the target dataset is in-distribution (IND) or out-of-distribution (OOD) for the pre-trained model is an important factor in the transferability estimation. To this end, we propose ETran, an energy-based transferability assessment metric, which includes three scores: 1) energy score, 2) classification score, and 3) regression score. We use energy-based models to determine whether the target dataset is OOD or IND for the pre-trained model. In contrast to the prior works, ETran is applicable to a wide range of tasks including classification, regression, and object detection (classification+regression). This is the first work that proposes transferability estimation for object detection task. Our extensive experiments on four benchmarks and two tasks show that ETran outperforms previous works on object detection and classification benchmarks by an average of 21% and 12%, respectively, and achieves SOTA in transferability assessment.

Accurately predicting watch time is crucial for optimizing recommendations and user experience in short video platforms. However, existing methods that estimate a single average watch time often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in user engagement patterns. In this paper, we propose Conditional Quantile Estimation (CQE) to model the entire conditional distribution of watch time. Using quantile regression, CQE characterizes the complex watch-time distribution for each user-video pair, providing a flexible and comprehensive approach to understanding user behavior. We further design multiple strategies to combine the quantile estimates, adapting to different recommendation scenarios and user preferences. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate the superiority of CQE in watch-time prediction and user engagement modeling. Specifically, deploying CQE online on a large-scale platform with hundreds of millions of daily active users has led to substantial gains in key evaluation metrics, including active days, engagement time, and video views. These results highlight the practical impact of our proposed approach in enhancing the user experience and overall performance of the short video recommendation system. The code will be released https://github.com/justopit/CQE.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

In this article, we study the consistency of the template estimation with the Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces. The Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces is often used when the observations are deformed or transformed by a group action. We show that in most cases this estimator is actually inconsistent. We exhibit a sufficient condition for this inconsistency, which amounts to the folding of the distribution of the noisy template when it is projected to the quotient space. This condition appears to be fulfilled as soon as the support of the noise is large enough. To quantify this inconsistency we provide lower and upper bounds of the bias as a function of the variability (the noise level). This shows that the consistency bias cannot be neglected when the variability increases.

Slippery road conditions pose significant challenges for autonomous driving. Beyond predicting road grip, it is crucial to estimate its uncertainty reliably to ensure safe vehicle control. In this work, we benchmark several uncertainty prediction methods to assess their effectiveness for grip uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we propose a novel approach that leverages road surface state segmentation to predict grip uncertainty. Our method estimates a pixel-wise grip probability distribution based on inferred road surface conditions. Experimental results indicate that the proposed approach enhances the robustness of grip uncertainty prediction.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims to detect testing samples far away from the in-distribution (ID) training data, which is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models in the real world. Distance-based OOD detection methods have emerged with enhanced deep representation learning. They identify unseen OOD samples by measuring their distances from ID class centroids or prototypes. However, existing approaches learn the representation relying on oversimplified data assumptions, e.g, modeling ID data of each class with one centroid class prototype or using loss functions not designed for OOD detection, which overlook the natural diversities within the data. Naively enforcing data samples of each class to be compact around only one prototype leads to inadequate modeling of realistic data and limited performance. To tackle these issues, we propose PrototypicAl Learning with a Mixture of prototypes (PALM) which models each class with multiple prototypes to capture the sample diversities, and learns more faithful and compact samples embeddings to enhance OOD detection. Our method automatically identifies and dynamically updates prototypes, assigning each sample to a subset of prototypes via reciprocal neighbor soft assignment weights. PALM optimizes a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) loss to encourage the sample embeddings to be compact around the associated prototypes, as well as a contrastive loss on all prototypes to enhance intra-class compactness and inter-class discrimination at the prototype level. Moreover, the automatic estimation of prototypes enables our approach to be extended to the challenging OOD detection task with unlabelled ID data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of PALM, achieving state-of-the-art average AUROC performance of 93.82 on the challenging CIFAR-100 benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/jeff024/PALM.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

The task of mixture proportion estimation (MPE) is to estimate the weight of a component distribution in a mixture, given observations from both the component and mixture. Previous work on MPE adopts the irreducibility assumption, which ensures identifiablity of the mixture proportion. In this paper, we propose a more general sufficient condition that accommodates several settings of interest where irreducibility does not hold. We further present a resampling-based meta-algorithm that takes any existing MPE algorithm designed to work under irreducibility and adapts it to work under our more general condition. Our approach empirically exhibits improved estimation performance relative to baseline methods and to a recently proposed regrouping-based algorithm.

Digital Surface Models (DSM) offer a wealth of height information for understanding the Earth's surface as well as monitoring the existence or change in natural and man-made structures. Classical height estimation requires multi-view geospatial imagery or LiDAR point clouds which can be expensive to acquire. Single-view height estimation using neural network based models shows promise however it can struggle with reconstructing high resolution features. The latest advancements in diffusion models for high resolution image synthesis and editing have yet to be utilized for remote sensing imagery, particularly height estimation. Our approach involves training a generative diffusion model to learn the joint distribution of optical and DSM images across both domains as a Markov chain. This is accomplished by minimizing a denoising score matching objective while being conditioned on the source image to generate realistic high resolution 3D surfaces. In this paper we experiment with conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) for height estimation from a single remotely sensed image and show promising results on the Vaihingen benchmark dataset.

In this paper, a novel Diffusion-based 3D Pose estimation (D3DP) method with Joint-wise reProjection-based Multi-hypothesis Aggregation (JPMA) is proposed for probabilistic 3D human pose estimation. On the one hand, D3DP generates multiple possible 3D pose hypotheses for a single 2D observation. It gradually diffuses the ground truth 3D poses to a random distribution, and learns a denoiser conditioned on 2D keypoints to recover the uncontaminated 3D poses. The proposed D3DP is compatible with existing 3D pose estimators and supports users to balance efficiency and accuracy during inference through two customizable parameters. On the other hand, JPMA is proposed to assemble multiple hypotheses generated by D3DP into a single 3D pose for practical use. It reprojects 3D pose hypotheses to the 2D camera plane, selects the best hypothesis joint-by-joint based on the reprojection errors, and combines the selected joints into the final pose. The proposed JPMA conducts aggregation at the joint level and makes use of the 2D prior information, both of which have been overlooked by previous approaches. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic approaches by 1.5% and 8.9%, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/paTRICK-swk/D3DP.

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to parameterize the Dirichlet distribution, and achieve impressive performance in uncertainty estimation. However, for high data uncertainty samples but annotated with the one-hot label, the evidence-learning process for those mislabeled classes is over-penalized and remains hindered. To address this problem, we propose a novel method, Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning (I-EDL). In particular, we introduce Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to measure the informativeness of evidence carried by each sample, according to which we can dynamically reweight the objective loss terms to make the network more focused on the representation learning of uncertain classes. The generalization ability of our network is further improved by optimizing the PAC-Bayesian bound. As demonstrated empirically, our proposed method consistently outperforms traditional EDL-related algorithms in multiple uncertainty estimation tasks, especially in the more challenging few-shot classification settings.

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal transport map between two probability distributions, P and Q in mathbb R^d, on the basis of i.i.d. samples. All existing statistical analyses of this problem require the assumption that the transport map is Lipschitz, a strong requirement that, in particular, excludes any examples where the transport map is discontinuous. As a first step towards developing estimation procedures for discontinuous maps, we consider the important special case where the data distribution Q is a discrete measure supported on a finite number of points in mathbb R^d. We study a computationally efficient estimator initially proposed by Pooladian and Niles-Weed (2021), based on entropic optimal transport, and show in the semi-discrete setting that it converges at the minimax-optimal rate n^{-1/2}, independent of dimension. Other standard map estimation techniques both lack finite-sample guarantees in this setting and provably suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We confirm these results in numerical experiments, and provide experiments for other settings, not covered by our theory, which indicate that the entropic estimator is a promising methodology for other discontinuous transport map estimation problems.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Modeling and estimating mixed memberships for overlapping unipartite un-weighted networks has been well studied in recent years. However, to our knowledge, there is no model for a more general case, the overlapping bipartite weighted networks. To close this gap, we introduce a novel model, the Bipartite Mixed Membership Distribution-Free (BiMMDF) model. Our model allows an adjacency matrix to follow any distribution as long as its expectation has a block structure related to node membership. In particular, BiMMDF can model overlapping bipartite signed networks and it is an extension of many previous models, including the popular mixed membership stochastic blcokmodels. An efficient algorithm with a theoretical guarantee of consistent estimation is applied to fit BiMMDF. We then obtain the separation conditions of BiMMDF for different distributions. Furthermore, we also consider missing edges for sparse networks. The advantage of BiMMDF is demonstrated in extensive synthetic networks and eight real-world networks.

We revisit quantum phase estimation algorithms for the purpose of obtaining the energy levels of many-body Hamiltonians and pay particular attention to the statistical analysis of their outputs. We introduce the mean phase direction of the parent distribution associated with eigenstate inputs as a new post-processing tool. By connecting it with the unknown phase, we find that if used as its direct estimator, it exceeds the accuracy of the standard majority rule using one less bit of resolution, making evident that it can also be inverted to provide unbiased estimation. Moreover, we show how to directly use this quantity to accurately find the energy levels when the initialized state is an eigenstate of the simulated propagator during the whole time evolution, which allows for shallower algorithms. We then use IBM Q hardware to carry out the digital quantum simulation of three toy models: a two-level system, a two-spin Ising model and a two-site Hubbard model at half-filling. Methodologies are provided to implement Trotterization and reduce the variability of results in noisy intermediate scale quantum computers.

Diffusion models have achieved great success in image generation tasks through iterative noise estimation. However, the heavy denoising process and complex neural networks hinder their low-latency applications in real-world scenarios. Quantization can effectively reduce model complexity, and post-training quantization (PTQ), which does not require fine-tuning, is highly promising in accelerating the denoising process. Unfortunately, we find that due to the highly dynamic distribution of activations in different denoising steps, existing PTQ methods for diffusion models suffer from distribution mismatch issues at both calibration sample level and reconstruction output level, which makes the performance far from satisfactory, especially in low-bit cases. In this paper, we propose Enhanced Distribution Alignment for Post-Training Quantization of Diffusion Models (EDA-DM) to address the above issues. Specifically, at the calibration sample level, we select calibration samples based on the density and diversity in the latent space, thus facilitating the alignment of their distribution with the overall samples; and at the reconstruction output level, we propose Fine-grained Block Reconstruction, which can align the outputs of the quantized model and the full-precision model at different network granularity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EDA-DM outperforms the existing post-training quantization frameworks in both unconditional and conditional generation scenarios. At low-bit precision, the quantized models with our method even outperform the full-precision models on most datasets.

Recent approaches have shown promises distilling diffusion models into efficient one-step generators. Among them, Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) produces one-step generators that match their teacher in distribution, without enforcing a one-to-one correspondence with the sampling trajectories of their teachers. However, to ensure stable training, DMD requires an additional regression loss computed using a large set of noise-image pairs generated by the teacher with many steps of a deterministic sampler. This is costly for large-scale text-to-image synthesis and limits the student's quality, tying it too closely to the teacher's original sampling paths. We introduce DMD2, a set of techniques that lift this limitation and improve DMD training. First, we eliminate the regression loss and the need for expensive dataset construction. We show that the resulting instability is due to the fake critic not estimating the distribution of generated samples accurately and propose a two time-scale update rule as a remedy. Second, we integrate a GAN loss into the distillation procedure, discriminating between generated samples and real images. This lets us train the student model on real data, mitigating the imperfect real score estimation from the teacher model, and enhancing quality. Lastly, we modify the training procedure to enable multi-step sampling. We identify and address the training-inference input mismatch problem in this setting, by simulating inference-time generator samples during training time. Taken together, our improvements set new benchmarks in one-step image generation, with FID scores of 1.28 on ImageNet-64x64 and 8.35 on zero-shot COCO 2014, surpassing the original teacher despite a 500X reduction in inference cost. Further, we show our approach can generate megapixel images by distilling SDXL, demonstrating exceptional visual quality among few-step methods.

Graph representation learning on Analog-Mixed Signal (AMS) circuits is crucial for various downstream tasks, e.g., parasitic estimation. However, the scarcity of design data, the unbalanced distribution of labels, and the inherent diversity of circuit implementations pose significant challenges to learning robust and transferable circuit representations. To address these limitations, we propose CircuitGCL, a novel graph contrastive learning framework that integrates representation scattering and label rebalancing to enhance transferability across heterogeneous circuit graphs. CircuitGCL employs a self-supervised strategy to learn topology-invariant node embeddings through hyperspherical representation scattering, eliminating dependency on large-scale data. Simultaneously, balanced mean squared error (BMSE) and balanced softmax cross-entropy (BSCE) losses are introduced to mitigate label distribution disparities between circuits, enabling robust and transferable parasitic estimation. Evaluated on parasitic capacitance estimation (edge-level task) and ground capacitance classification (node-level task) across TSMC 28nm AMS designs, CircuitGCL outperforms all state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, with the R^2 improvement of 33.64% sim 44.20% for edge regression and F1-score gain of 0.9times sim 2.1times for node classification. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShenShan123/CircuitGCL.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have been a pioneering force in the realm of deep generative models. Amongst its legions of progenies, Wasserstein Autoencoders (WAEs) stand out in particular due to the dual offering of heightened generative quality and a strong theoretical backbone. WAEs consist of an encoding and a decoding network forming a bottleneck with the prime objective of generating new samples resembling the ones it was catered to. In the process, they aim to achieve a target latent representation of the encoded data. Our work is an attempt to offer a theoretical understanding of the machinery behind WAEs. From a statistical viewpoint, we pose the problem as concurrent density estimation tasks based on neural network-induced transformations. This allows us to establish deterministic upper bounds on the realized errors WAEs commit. We also analyze the propagation of these stochastic errors in the presence of adversaries. As a result, both the large sample properties of the reconstructed distribution and the resilience of WAE models are explored.

Offline reinforcement learning faces a significant challenge of value over-estimation due to the distributional drift between the dataset and the current learned policy, leading to learning failure in practice. The common approach is to incorporate a penalty term to reward or value estimation in the Bellman iterations. Meanwhile, to avoid extrapolation on out-of-distribution (OOD) states and actions, existing methods focus on conservative Q-function estimation. In this paper, we propose Conservative State Value Estimation (CSVE), a new approach that learns conservative V-function via directly imposing penalty on OOD states. Compared to prior work, CSVE allows more effective in-data policy optimization with conservative value guarantees. Further, we apply CSVE and develop a practical actor-critic algorithm in which the critic does the conservative value estimation by additionally sampling and penalizing the states around the dataset, and the actor applies advantage weighted updates extended with state exploration to improve the policy. We evaluate in classic continual control tasks of D4RL, showing that our method performs better than the conservative Q-function learning methods and is strongly competitive among recent SOTA methods.

Due to depth ambiguities and occlusions, lifting 2D poses to 3D is a highly ill-posed problem. Well-calibrated distributions of possible poses can make these ambiguities explicit and preserve the resulting uncertainty for downstream tasks. This study shows that previous attempts, which account for these ambiguities via multiple hypotheses generation, produce miscalibrated distributions. We identify that miscalibration can be attributed to the use of sample-based metrics such as minMPJPE. In a series of simulations, we show that minimizing minMPJPE, as commonly done, should converge to the correct mean prediction. However, it fails to correctly capture the uncertainty, thus resulting in a miscalibrated distribution. To mitigate this problem, we propose an accurate and well-calibrated model called Conditional Graph Normalizing Flow (cGNFs). Our model is structured such that a single cGNF can estimate both conditional and marginal densities within the same model - effectively solving a zero-shot density estimation problem. We evaluate cGNF on the Human~3.6M dataset and show that cGNF provides a well-calibrated distribution estimate while being close to state-of-the-art in terms of overall minMPJPE. Furthermore, cGNF outperforms previous methods on occluded joints while it remains well-calibrated.

Millimeter-wave (mmWave) and Terahertz (THz)-band communications hold great promise in meeting the growing data-rate demands of next-generation wireless networks, offering abundant bandwidth. To mitigate the severe path loss inherent to these high frequencies and reduce hardware costs, ultra-massive multiple-input multiple-output (UM-MIMO) systems with hybrid beamforming architectures can deliver substantial beamforming gains and enhanced spectral efficiency. However, accurate channel estimation (CE) in mmWave and THz UM-MIMO systems is challenging due to high channel dimensionality and compressed observations from a limited number of RF chains, while the hybrid near- and far-field radiation patterns, arising from large array apertures and high carrier frequencies, further complicate CE. Conventional compressive sensing based frameworks rely on predefined sparsifying matrices, which cannot faithfully capture the hybrid near-field and far-field channel structures, leading to degraded estimation performance. This paper introduces DiffPace, a diffusion-based plug-and-play method for channel estimation. DiffPace uses a diffusion model (DM) to capture the channel distribution based on the hybrid spherical and planar-wave (HPSM) model. By applying the plug-and-play approach, it leverages the DM as prior knowledge, improving CE accuracy. Moreover, DM performs inference by solving an ordinary differential equation, minimizing the number of required inference steps compared with stochastic sampling method. Experimental results show that DiffPace achieves competitive CE performance, attaining -15 dB normalized mean square error (NMSE) at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 10 dB, with 90\% fewer inference steps compared to state-of-the-art schemes, simultaneously providing high estimation precision and enhanced computational efficiency.

We introduce UPose3D, a novel approach for multi-view 3D human pose estimation, addressing challenges in accuracy and scalability. Our method advances existing pose estimation frameworks by improving robustness and flexibility without requiring direct 3D annotations. At the core of our method, a pose compiler module refines predictions from a 2D keypoints estimator that operates on a single image by leveraging temporal and cross-view information. Our novel cross-view fusion strategy is scalable to any number of cameras, while our synthetic data generation strategy ensures generalization across diverse actors, scenes, and viewpoints. Finally, UPose3D leverages the prediction uncertainty of both the 2D keypoint estimator and the pose compiler module. This provides robustness to outliers and noisy data, resulting in state-of-the-art performance in out-of-distribution settings. In addition, for in-distribution settings, UPose3D yields performance rivalling methods that rely on 3D annotated data while being the state-of-the-art among methods relying only on 2D supervision.

Learning from human feedback (LHF) -- and in particular learning from pairwise preferences -- has recently become a crucial ingredient in training large language models (LLMs), and has been the subject of much research. Most recent works frame it as a reinforcement learning problem, where a reward function is learned from pairwise preference data and the LLM is treated as a policy which is adapted to maximize the rewards, often under additional regularization constraints. We propose an alternative interpretation which centers on the generative process for pairwise preferences and treats LHF as a density estimation problem. We provide theoretical and empirical results showing that for a family of generative processes defined via preference behavior distribution equations, training a reward function on pairwise preferences effectively models an annotator's implicit preference distribution. Finally, we discuss and present findings on "annotator misspecification" -- failure cases where wrong modeling assumptions are made about annotator behavior, resulting in poorly-adapted models -- suggesting that approaches that learn from pairwise human preferences could have trouble learning from a population of annotators with diverse viewpoints.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Monocular depth estimation is a challenging task that predicts the pixel-wise depth from a single 2D image. Current methods typically model this problem as a regression or classification task. We propose DiffusionDepth, a new approach that reformulates monocular depth estimation as a denoising diffusion process. It learns an iterative denoising process to `denoise' random depth distribution into a depth map with the guidance of monocular visual conditions. The process is performed in the latent space encoded by a dedicated depth encoder and decoder. Instead of diffusing ground truth (GT) depth, the model learns to reverse the process of diffusing the refined depth of itself into random depth distribution. This self-diffusion formulation overcomes the difficulty of applying generative models to sparse GT depth scenarios. The proposed approach benefits this task by refining depth estimation step by step, which is superior for generating accurate and highly detailed depth maps. Experimental results on KITTI and NYU-Depth-V2 datasets suggest that a simple yet efficient diffusion approach could reach state-of-the-art performance in both indoor and outdoor scenarios with acceptable inference time.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Developing gaze estimation models that generalize well to unseen domains and in-the-wild conditions remains a challenge with no known best solution. This is mostly due to the difficulty of acquiring ground truth data that cover the distribution of faces, head poses, and environments that exist in the real world. Most recent methods attempt to close the gap between specific source and target domains using domain adaptation. In this work, we propose to train general gaze estimation models which can be directly employed in novel environments without adaptation. To do so, we leverage the observation that head, body, and hand pose estimation benefit from revising them as dense 3D coordinate prediction, and similarly express gaze estimation as regression of dense 3D eye meshes. To close the gap between image domains, we create a large-scale dataset of diverse faces with gaze pseudo-annotations, which we extract based on the 3D geometry of the scene, and design a multi-view supervision framework to balance their effect during training. We test our method in the task of gaze generalization, in which we demonstrate improvement of up to 30% compared to state-of-the-art when no ground truth data are available, and up to 10% when they are. The project material are available for research purposes at https://github.com/Vagver/3DGazeNet.

Despite remarkable advancements in video depth estimation, existing methods exhibit inherent limitations in achieving geometric fidelity through the affine-invariant predictions, limiting their applicability in reconstruction and other metrically grounded downstream tasks. We propose GeometryCrafter, a novel framework that recovers high-fidelity point map sequences with temporal coherence from open-world videos, enabling accurate 3D/4D reconstruction, camera parameter estimation, and other depth-based applications. At the core of our approach lies a point map Variational Autoencoder (VAE) that learns a latent space agnostic to video latent distributions for effective point map encoding and decoding. Leveraging the VAE, we train a video diffusion model to model the distribution of point map sequences conditioned on the input videos. Extensive evaluations on diverse datasets demonstrate that GeometryCrafter achieves state-of-the-art 3D accuracy, temporal consistency, and generalization capability.

A critical obstacle preventing NeRF models from being deployed broadly in the wild is their reliance on accurate camera poses. Consequently, there is growing interest in extending NeRF models to jointly optimize camera poses and scene representation, which offers an alternative to off-the-shelf SfM pipelines which have well-understood failure modes. Existing approaches for unposed NeRF operate under limited assumptions, such as a prior pose distribution or coarse pose initialization, making them less effective in a general setting. In this work, we propose a novel approach, LU-NeRF, that jointly estimates camera poses and neural radiance fields with relaxed assumptions on pose configuration. Our approach operates in a local-to-global manner, where we first optimize over local subsets of the data, dubbed mini-scenes. LU-NeRF estimates local pose and geometry for this challenging few-shot task. The mini-scene poses are brought into a global reference frame through a robust pose synchronization step, where a final global optimization of pose and scene can be performed. We show our LU-NeRF pipeline outperforms prior attempts at unposed NeRF without making restrictive assumptions on the pose prior. This allows us to operate in the general SE(3) pose setting, unlike the baselines. Our results also indicate our model can be complementary to feature-based SfM pipelines as it compares favorably to COLMAP on low-texture and low-resolution images.

Estimating depth from a single image is a challenging visual task. Compared to relative depth estimation, metric depth estimation attracts more attention due to its practical physical significance and critical applications in real-life scenarios. However, existing metric depth estimation methods are typically trained on specific datasets with similar scenes, facing challenges in generalizing across scenes with significant scale variations. To address this challenge, we propose a novel monocular depth estimation method called ScaleDepth. Our method decomposes metric depth into scene scale and relative depth, and predicts them through a semantic-aware scale prediction (SASP) module and an adaptive relative depth estimation (ARDE) module, respectively. The proposed ScaleDepth enjoys several merits. First, the SASP module can implicitly combine structural and semantic features of the images to predict precise scene scales. Second, the ARDE module can adaptively estimate the relative depth distribution of each image within a normalized depth space. Third, our method achieves metric depth estimation for both indoor and outdoor scenes in a unified framework, without the need for setting the depth range or fine-tuning model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method attains state-of-the-art performance across indoor, outdoor, unconstrained, and unseen scenes. Project page: https://ruijiezhu94.github.io/ScaleDepth

Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTPs) represent sophisticated attack patterns in the cybersecurity domain, described encyclopedically in textual knowledge bases. Identifying TTPs in cybersecurity writing, often called TTP mapping, is an important and challenging task. Conventional learning approaches often target the problem in the classical multi-class or multilabel classification setting. This setting hinders the learning ability of the model due to a large number of classes (i.e., TTPs), the inevitable skewness of the label distribution and the complex hierarchical structure of the label space. We formulate the problem in a different learning paradigm, where the assignment of a text to a TTP label is decided by the direct semantic similarity between the two, thus reducing the complexity of competing solely over the large labeling space. To that end, we propose a neural matching architecture with an effective sampling-based learn-to-compare mechanism, facilitating the learning process of the matching model despite constrained resources.

This work introduces a novel deep-learning approach for estimating age from a single facial image by refining an initial age estimate. The refinement leverages a reference face database of individuals with similar ages and appearances. We employ a network that estimates age differences between an input image and reference images with known ages, thus refining the initial estimate. Our method explicitly models age-dependent facial variations using differential regression, yielding improved accuracy compared to conventional absolute age estimation. Additionally, we introduce an age augmentation scheme that iteratively refines initial age estimates by modeling their error distribution during training. This iterative approach further enhances the initial estimates. Our approach surpasses existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy on the MORPH II and CACD datasets. Furthermore, we examine the biases inherent in contemporary state-of-the-art age estimation techniques.

We present a novel approach designed to address the complexities posed by challenging, out-of-distribution data in the single-image depth estimation task. Starting with images that facilitate depth prediction due to the absence of unfavorable factors, we systematically generate new, user-defined scenes with a comprehensive set of challenges and associated depth information. This is achieved by leveraging cutting-edge text-to-image diffusion models with depth-aware control, known for synthesizing high-quality image content from textual prompts while preserving the coherence of 3D structure between generated and source imagery. Subsequent fine-tuning of any monocular depth network is carried out through a self-distillation protocol that takes into account images generated using our strategy and its own depth predictions on simple, unchallenging scenes. Experiments on benchmarks tailored for our purposes demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of our proposal.

For human-centric large-scale scenes, fine-grained modeling for 3D human global pose and shape is significant for scene understanding and can benefit many real-world applications. In this paper, we present LiveHPS, a novel single-LiDAR-based approach for scene-level human pose and shape estimation without any limitation of light conditions and wearable devices. In particular, we design a distillation mechanism to mitigate the distribution-varying effect of LiDAR point clouds and exploit the temporal-spatial geometric and dynamic information existing in consecutive frames to solve the occlusion and noise disturbance. LiveHPS, with its efficient configuration and high-quality output, is well-suited for real-world applications. Moreover, we propose a huge human motion dataset, named FreeMotion, which is collected in various scenarios with diverse human poses, shapes and translations. It consists of multi-modal and multi-view acquisition data from calibrated and synchronized LiDARs, cameras, and IMUs. Extensive experiments on our new dataset and other public datasets demonstrate the SOTA performance and robustness of our approach. We will release our code and dataset soon.

3D human pose estimation has been a long-standing challenge in computer vision and graphics, where multi-view methods have significantly progressed but are limited by the tedious calibration processes. Existing multi-view methods are restricted to fixed camera pose and therefore lack generalization ability. This paper presents a novel Probabilistic Triangulation module that can be embedded in a calibrated 3D human pose estimation method, generalizing it to uncalibration scenes. The key idea is to use a probability distribution to model the camera pose and iteratively update the distribution from 2D features instead of using camera pose. Specifically, We maintain a camera pose distribution and then iteratively update this distribution by computing the posterior probability of the camera pose through Monte Carlo sampling. This way, the gradients can be directly back-propagated from the 3D pose estimation to the 2D heatmap, enabling end-to-end training. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and CMU Panoptic demonstrate that our method outperforms other uncalibration methods and achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art calibration methods. Thus, our method achieves a trade-off between estimation accuracy and generalizability. Our code is in https://github.com/bymaths/probabilistic_triangulation

The current 3D human pose estimators face challenges in adapting to new datasets due to the scarcity of 2D-3D pose pairs in target domain training sets. We present the Multi-Hypothesis \textbf{Pose Synthesis Domain Adaptation} (PoSynDA) framework to overcome this issue without extensive target domain annotation. Utilizing a diffusion-centric structure, PoSynDA simulates the 3D pose distribution in the target domain, filling the data diversity gap. By incorporating a multi-hypothesis network, it creates diverse pose hypotheses and aligns them with the target domain. Target-specific source augmentation obtains the target domain distribution data from the source domain by decoupling the scale and position parameters. The teacher-student paradigm and low-rank adaptation further refine the process. PoSynDA demonstrates competitive performance on benchmarks, such as Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP, and 3DPW, even comparable with the target-trained MixSTE model~zhang2022mixste. This work paves the way for the practical application of 3D human pose estimation. The code is available at https://github.com/hbing-l/PoSynDA.

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. For this, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Specifically, we combine two normalizing flows, namely (i) a nuisance flow for estimating nuisance parameters and (ii) a target flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. We further develop a tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction for efficient and doubly robust estimation of the target flow parameters. As a result, our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first proper fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

In this paper we present SurfaceNet, an approach for estimating spatially-varying bidirectional reflectance distribution function (SVBRDF) material properties from a single image. We pose the problem as an image translation task and propose a novel patch-based generative adversarial network (GAN) that is able to produce high-quality, high-resolution surface reflectance maps. The employment of the GAN paradigm has a twofold objective: 1) allowing the model to recover finer details than standard translation models; 2) reducing the domain shift between synthetic and real data distributions in an unsupervised way. An extensive evaluation, carried out on a public benchmark of synthetic and real images under different illumination conditions, shows that SurfaceNet largely outperforms existing SVBRDF reconstruction methods, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Furthermore, SurfaceNet exhibits a remarkable ability in generating high-quality maps from real samples without any supervision at training time.

A crucial requirement for reliable deployment of deep learning models for safety-critical applications is the ability to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data points, samples which differ from the training data and on which a model might underperform. Previous work has attempted to tackle this problem using uncertainty estimation techniques. However, there is empirical evidence that a large family of these techniques do not detect OOD reliably in classification tasks. This paper gives a theoretical explanation for said experimental findings and illustrates it on synthetic data. We prove that such techniques are not able to reliably identify OOD samples in a classification setting, since their level of confidence is generalized to unseen areas of the feature space. This result stems from the interplay between the representation of ReLU networks as piece-wise affine transformations, the saturating nature of activation functions like softmax, and the most widely-used uncertainty metrics.

In reinforcement learning (RL), function approximation errors are known to easily lead to the Q-value overestimations, thus greatly reducing policy performance. This paper presents a distributional soft actor-critic (DSAC) algorithm, which is an off-policy RL method for continuous control setting, to improve the policy performance by mitigating Q-value overestimations. We first discover in theory that learning a distribution function of state-action returns can effectively mitigate Q-value overestimations because it is capable of adaptively adjusting the update stepsize of the Q-value function. Then, a distributional soft policy iteration (DSPI) framework is developed by embedding the return distribution function into maximum entropy RL. Finally, we present a deep off-policy actor-critic variant of DSPI, called DSAC, which directly learns a continuous return distribution by keeping the variance of the state-action returns within a reasonable range to address exploding and vanishing gradient problems. We evaluate DSAC on the suite of MuJoCo continuous control tasks, achieving the state-of-the-art performance.

Object detection systems must reliably perceive objects of interest without being overly confident to ensure safe decision-making in dynamic environments. Filtering techniques based on out-of-distribution (OoD) detection are commonly added as an extra safeguard to filter hallucinations caused by overconfidence in novel objects. Nevertheless, evaluating YOLO-family detectors and their filters under existing OoD benchmarks often leads to unsatisfactory performance. This paper studies the underlying reasons for performance bottlenecks and proposes a methodology to improve performance fundamentally. Our first contribution is a calibration of all existing evaluation results: Although images in existing OoD benchmark datasets are claimed not to have objects within in-distribution (ID) classes (i.e., categories defined in the training dataset), around 13% of objects detected by the object detector are actually ID objects. Dually, the ID dataset containing OoD objects can also negatively impact the decision boundary of filters. These ultimately lead to a significantly imprecise performance estimation. Our second contribution is to consider the task of hallucination reduction as a joint pipeline of detectors and filters. By developing a methodology to carefully synthesize an OoD dataset that semantically resembles the objects to be detected, and using the crafted OoD dataset in the fine-tuning of YOLO detectors to suppress the objectness score, we achieve a 88% reduction in overall hallucination error with a combined fine-tuned detection and filtering system on the self-driving benchmark BDD-100K. Our code and dataset are available at: https://gricad-gitlab.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/dnn-safety/m-hood.

Many real-world scenarios in which DNN-based recognition systems are deployed have inherently fine-grained attributes (e.g., bird-species recognition, medical image classification). In addition to achieving reliable accuracy, a critical subtask for these models is to detect Out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Given the nature of the deployment environment, one may expect such OOD inputs to also be fine-grained w.r.t. the known classes (e.g., a novel bird species), which are thus extremely difficult to identify. Unfortunately, OOD detection in fine-grained scenarios remains largely underexplored. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by first carefully constructing four large-scale fine-grained test environments, in which existing methods are shown to have difficulties. Particularly, we find that even explicitly incorporating a diverse set of auxiliary outlier data during training does not provide sufficient coverage over the broad region where fine-grained OOD samples locate. We then propose Mixture Outlier Exposure (MixOE), which mixes ID data and training outliers to expand the coverage of different OOD granularities, and trains the model such that the prediction confidence linearly decays as the input transitions from ID to OOD. Extensive experiments and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of MixOE for building up OOD detector in fine-grained environments. The code is available at https://github.com/zjysteven/MixOE.

Camera pose estimation is a long-standing computer vision problem that to date often relies on classical methods, such as handcrafted keypoint matching, RANSAC and bundle adjustment. In this paper, we propose to formulate the Structure from Motion (SfM) problem inside a probabilistic diffusion framework, modelling the conditional distribution of camera poses given input images. This novel view of an old problem has several advantages. (i) The nature of the diffusion framework mirrors the iterative procedure of bundle adjustment. (ii) The formulation allows a seamless integration of geometric constraints from epipolar geometry. (iii) It excels in typically difficult scenarios such as sparse views with wide baselines. (iv) The method can predict intrinsics and extrinsics for an arbitrary amount of images. We demonstrate that our method PoseDiffusion significantly improves over the classic SfM pipelines and the learned approaches on two real-world datasets. Finally, it is observed that our method can generalize across datasets without further training. Project page: https://posediffusion.github.io/

Hands are essential to human interaction, and understanding contact between hands and the world can promote comprehensive understanding of their function. Recently, there have been growing number of hand interaction datasets that cover interaction with object, other hand, scene, and body. Despite the significance of the task and increasing high-quality data, how to effectively learn dense hand contact estimation remains largely underexplored. There are two major challenges for learning dense hand contact estimation. First, there exists class imbalance issue from hand contact datasets where majority of samples are not in contact. Second, hand contact datasets contain spatial imbalance issue with most of hand contact exhibited in finger tips, resulting in challenges for generalization towards contacts in other hand regions. To tackle these issues, we present a framework that learns dense HAnd COntact estimation (HACO) from imbalanced data. To resolve the class imbalance issue, we introduce balanced contact sampling, which builds and samples from multiple sampling groups that fairly represent diverse contact statistics for both contact and non-contact samples. Moreover, to address the spatial imbalance issue, we propose vertex-level class-balanced (VCB) loss, which incorporates spatially varying contact distribution by separately reweighting loss contribution of each vertex based on its contact frequency across dataset. As a result, we effectively learn to predict dense hand contact estimation with large-scale hand contact data without suffering from class and spatial imbalance issue. The codes will be released.

Pre-trained diffusion models provide rich multi-scale latent features and are emerging as powerful vision backbones. While recent works such as Marigold~ke2024repurposing and Lotus~he2024lotus adapt diffusion priors for dense prediction with strong cross-domain generalization, their potential for structured outputs (e.g., human pose estimation) remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose SDPose, a fine-tuning framework built upon Stable Diffusion to fully exploit pre-trained diffusion priors for human pose estimation. First, rather than modifying cross-attention modules or introducing learnable embeddings, we directly predict keypoint heatmaps in the SD U-Net's image latent space to preserve the original generative priors. Second, we map these latent features into keypoint heatmaps through a lightweight convolutional pose head, which avoids disrupting the pre-trained backbone. Finally, to prevent overfitting and enhance out-of-distribution robustness, we incorporate an auxiliary RGB reconstruction branch that preserves domain-transferable generative semantics. To evaluate robustness under domain shift, we further construct COCO-OOD, a style-transferred variant of COCO with preserved annotations. With just one-fifth of the training schedule used by Sapiens on COCO, SDPose attains parity with Sapiens-1B/2B on the COCO validation set and establishes a new state of the art on the cross-domain benchmarks HumanArt and COCO-OOD. Furthermore, we showcase SDPose as a zero-shot pose annotator for downstream controllable generation tasks, including ControlNet-based image synthesis and video generation, where it delivers qualitatively superior pose guidance.

State of health (SOH) is a crucial indicator for assessing the degradation level of batteries that cannot be measured directly but requires estimation. Accurate SOH estimation enhances detection, control, and feedback for Li-ion batteries, allowing for safe and efficient energy management and guiding the development of new-generation batteries. Despite the significant progress in data-driven SOH estimation, the time and resource-consuming degradation experiments for generating lifelong training data pose a challenge in establishing one large model capable of handling diverse types of Li-ion batteries, e.g., cross-chemistry, cross-manufacturer, and cross-capacity. Hence, this paper utilizes the strong generalization capability of large language model (LLM) to proposes a novel framework for adaptable SOH estimation across diverse batteries. To match the real scenario where unlabeled data sequentially arrives in use with distribution shifts, the proposed model is modified by a test-time training technique to ensure estimation accuracy even at the battery's end of life. The validation results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on four widely recognized datasets collected from 62 batteries. Furthermore, we analyze the theoretical challenges of cross-battery estimation and provide a quantitative explanation of the effectiveness of our method.

When applying a pre-trained 2D-to-3D human pose lifting model to a target unseen dataset, large performance degradation is commonly encountered due to domain shift issues. We observe that the degradation is caused by two factors: 1) the large distribution gap over global positions of poses between the source and target datasets due to variant camera parameters and settings, and 2) the deficient diversity of local structures of poses in training. To this end, we combine global adaptation and local generalization in PoseDA, a simple yet effective framework of unsupervised domain adaptation for 3D human pose estimation. Specifically, global adaptation aims to align global positions of poses from the source domain to the target domain with a proposed global position alignment (GPA) module. And local generalization is designed to enhance the diversity of 2D-3D pose mapping with a local pose augmentation (LPA) module. These modules bring significant performance improvement without introducing additional learnable parameters. In addition, we propose local pose augmentation (LPA) to enhance the diversity of 3D poses following an adversarial training scheme consisting of 1) a augmentation generator that generates the parameters of pre-defined pose transformations and 2) an anchor discriminator to ensure the reality and quality of the augmented data. Our approach can be applicable to almost all 2D-3D lifting models. PoseDA achieves 61.3 mm of MPJPE on MPI-INF-3DHP under a cross-dataset evaluation setup, improving upon the previous state-of-the-art method by 10.2\%.

We show that the effectiveness of the well celebrated Mixup [Zhang et al., 2018] can be further improved if instead of using it as the sole learning objective, it is utilized as an additional regularizer to the standard cross-entropy loss. This simple change not only provides much improved accuracy but also significantly improves the quality of the predictive uncertainty estimation of Mixup in most cases under various forms of covariate shifts and out-of-distribution detection experiments. In fact, we observe that Mixup yields much degraded performance on detecting out-of-distribution samples possibly, as we show empirically, because of its tendency to learn models that exhibit high-entropy throughout; making it difficult to differentiate in-distribution samples from out-distribution ones. To show the efficacy of our approach (RegMixup), we provide thorough analyses and experiments on vision datasets (ImageNet & CIFAR-10/100) and compare it with a suite of recent approaches for reliable uncertainty estimation.

The lack of labeled datasets in 3D vision for surgical scenes inhibits the development of robust 3D reconstruction algorithms in the medical domain. Despite the popularity of Neural Radiance Fields and 3D Gaussian Splatting in the general computer vision community, these systems have yet to find consistent success in surgical scenes due to challenges such as non-stationary lighting and non-Lambertian surfaces. As a result, the need for labeled surgical datasets continues to grow. In this work, we introduce a differentiable rendering framework for material and lighting estimation from endoscopic images and known geometry. Compared to previous approaches that model lighting and material jointly as radiance, we explicitly disentangle these scene properties for robust and photorealistic novel view synthesis. To disambiguate the training process, we formulate domain-specific properties inherent in surgical scenes. Specifically, we model the scene lighting as a simple spotlight and material properties as a bidirectional reflectance distribution function, parameterized by a neural network. By grounding color predictions in the rendering equation, we can generate photorealistic images at arbitrary camera poses. We evaluate our method with various sequences from the Colonoscopy 3D Video Dataset and show that our method produces competitive novel view synthesis results compared with other approaches. Furthermore, we demonstrate that synthetic data can be used to develop 3D vision algorithms by finetuning a depth estimation model with our rendered outputs. Overall, we see that the depth estimation performance is on par with fine-tuning with the original real images.

Quantitative analysis of animal behavior and biomechanics requires accurate animal pose and shape estimation across species, and is important for animal welfare and biological research. However, the small network capacity of previous methods and limited multi-species dataset leave this problem underexplored. To this end, this paper presents AniMer to estimate animal pose and shape using family aware Transformer, enhancing the reconstruction accuracy of diverse quadrupedal families. A key insight of AniMer is its integration of a high-capacity Transformer-based backbone and an animal family supervised contrastive learning scheme, unifying the discriminative understanding of various quadrupedal shapes within a single framework. For effective training, we aggregate most available open-sourced quadrupedal datasets, either with 3D or 2D labels. To improve the diversity of 3D labeled data, we introduce CtrlAni3D, a novel large-scale synthetic dataset created through a new diffusion-based conditional image generation pipeline. CtrlAni3D consists of about 10k images with pixel-aligned SMAL labels. In total, we obtain 41.3k annotated images for training and validation. Consequently, the combination of a family aware Transformer network and an expansive dataset enables AniMer to outperform existing methods not only on 3D datasets like Animal3D and CtrlAni3D, but also on out-of-distribution Animal Kingdom dataset. Ablation studies further demonstrate the effectiveness of our network design and CtrlAni3D in enhancing the performance of AniMer for in-the-wild applications. The project page of AniMer is https://luoxue-star.github.io/AniMer_project_page/.

Resonant anomaly detection methods have great potential for enhancing the sensitivity of traditional bump hunt searches. A key component of these methods is a high quality background template used to produce an anomaly score. Using the LHC Olympics R&D dataset, we demonstrate that this background template can also be repurposed to directly estimate the background expectation in a simple cut and count setup. In contrast to a traditional bump hunt, no fit to the invariant mass distribution is needed, thereby avoiding the potential problem of background sculpting. Furthermore, direct background estimation allows working with large background rejection rates, where resonant anomaly detection methods typically show their greatest improvement in significance.

We introduce GeoWizard, a new generative foundation model designed for estimating geometric attributes, e.g., depth and normals, from single images. While significant research has already been conducted in this area, the progress has been substantially limited by the low diversity and poor quality of publicly available datasets. As a result, the prior works either are constrained to limited scenarios or suffer from the inability to capture geometric details. In this paper, we demonstrate that generative models, as opposed to traditional discriminative models (e.g., CNNs and Transformers), can effectively address the inherently ill-posed problem. We further show that leveraging diffusion priors can markedly improve generalization, detail preservation, and efficiency in resource usage. Specifically, we extend the original stable diffusion model to jointly predict depth and normal, allowing mutual information exchange and high consistency between the two representations. More importantly, we propose a simple yet effective strategy to segregate the complex data distribution of various scenes into distinct sub-distributions. This strategy enables our model to recognize different scene layouts, capturing 3D geometry with remarkable fidelity. GeoWizard sets new benchmarks for zero-shot depth and normal prediction, significantly enhancing many downstream applications such as 3D reconstruction, 2D content creation, and novel viewpoint synthesis.

Large pre-trained language models achieve impressive results across many tasks. However, recent works point out that pre-trained language models may memorize a considerable fraction of their training data, leading to the privacy risk of information leakage. In this paper, we propose a method named Ethicist for targeted training data extraction through loss smoothed soft prompting and calibrated confidence estimation, investigating how to recover the suffix in the training data when given a prefix. To elicit memorization in the attacked model, we tune soft prompt embeddings while keeping the model fixed. We further propose a smoothing loss that smooths the loss distribution of the suffix tokens to make it easier to sample the correct suffix. In order to select the most probable suffix from a collection of sampled suffixes and estimate the prediction confidence, we propose a calibrated confidence estimation method, which normalizes the confidence of the generated suffixes with a local estimation. We show that Ethicist significantly improves the extraction performance on a recently proposed public benchmark. We also investigate several factors influencing the data extraction performance, including decoding strategy, model scale, prefix length, and suffix length. Our code is available at https://github.com/thu-coai/Targeted-Data-Extraction.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a critical requirement for the deployment of deep neural networks. This paper introduces the HEAT model, a new post-hoc OOD detection method estimating the density of in-distribution (ID) samples using hybrid energy-based models (EBM) in the feature space of a pre-trained backbone. HEAT complements prior density estimators of the ID density, e.g. parametric models like the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), to provide an accurate yet robust density estimation. A second contribution is to leverage the EBM framework to provide a unified density estimation and to compose several energy terms. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of the two contributions. HEAT sets new state-of-the-art OOD detection results on the CIFAR-10 / CIFAR-100 benchmark as well as on the large-scale Imagenet benchmark. The code is available at: https://github.com/MarcLafon/heatood.

It is well-known that zero-shot learning (ZSL) can suffer severely from the problem of domain shift, where the true and learned data distributions for the unseen classes do not match. Although transductive ZSL (TZSL) attempts to improve this by allowing the use of unlabelled examples from the unseen classes, there is still a high level of distribution shift. We propose a novel TZSL model (named as Bi-VAEGAN), which largely improves the shift by a strengthened distribution alignment between the visual and auxiliary spaces. The key proposal of the model design includes (1) a bi-directional distribution alignment, (2) a simple but effective L_2-norm based feature normalization approach, and (3) a more sophisticated unseen class prior estimation approach. In benchmark evaluation using four datasets, Bi-VAEGAN achieves the new state of the arts under both the standard and generalized TZSL settings. Code could be found at https://github.com/Zhicaiwww/Bi-VAEGAN

Based on the Manhattan World assumption, most existing indoor layout estimation schemes focus on recovering layouts from vertically compressed 1D sequences. However, the compression procedure confuses the semantics of different planes, yielding inferior performance with ambiguous interpretability. To address this issue, we propose to disentangle this 1D representation by pre-segmenting orthogonal (vertical and horizontal) planes from a complex scene, explicitly capturing the geometric cues for indoor layout estimation. Considering the symmetry between the floor boundary and ceiling boundary, we also design a soft-flipping fusion strategy to assist the pre-segmentation. Besides, we present a feature assembling mechanism to effectively integrate shallow and deep features with distortion distribution awareness. To compensate for the potential errors in pre-segmentation, we further leverage triple attention to reconstruct the disentangled sequences for better performance. Experiments on four popular benchmarks demonstrate our superiority over existing SoTA solutions, especially on the 3DIoU metric. The code is available at https://github.com/zhijieshen-bjtu/DOPNet.

Privacy estimation techniques for differentially private (DP) algorithms are useful for comparing against analytical bounds, or to empirically measure privacy loss in settings where known analytical bounds are not tight. However, existing privacy auditing techniques usually make strong assumptions on the adversary (e.g., knowledge of intermediate model iterates or the training data distribution), are tailored to specific tasks, model architectures, or DP algorithm, and/or require retraining the model many times (typically on the order of thousands). These shortcomings make deploying such techniques at scale difficult in practice, especially in federated settings where model training can take days or weeks. In this work, we present a novel ``one-shot'' approach that can systematically address these challenges, allowing efficient auditing or estimation of the privacy loss of a model during the same, single training run used to fit model parameters, and without requiring any a priori knowledge about the model architecture, task, or DP training algorithm. We show that our method provides provably correct estimates for the privacy loss under the Gaussian mechanism, and we demonstrate its performance on well-established FL benchmark datasets under several adversarial threat models.

Deep Ensembles (DE) are a prominent approach for achieving excellent performance on key metrics such as accuracy, calibration, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection. However, hardware limitations of real-world systems constrain to smaller ensembles and lower-capacity networks, significantly deteriorating their performance and properties. We introduce Packed-Ensembles (PE), a strategy to design and train lightweight structured ensembles by carefully modulating the dimension of their encoding space. We leverage grouped convolutions to parallelize the ensemble into a single shared backbone and forward pass to improve training and inference speeds. PE is designed to operate within the memory limits of a standard neural network. Our extensive research indicates that PE accurately preserves the properties of DE, such as diversity, and performs equally well in terms of accuracy, calibration, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to distribution shift. We make our code available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty.

Recent domain generalization (DG) approaches typically use the hypothesis learned on source domains for inference on the unseen target domain. However, such a hypothesis can be arbitrarily far from the optimal one for the target domain, induced by a gap termed ``adaptivity gap''. Without exploiting the domain information from the unseen test samples, adaptivity gap estimation and minimization are intractable, which hinders us to robustify a model to any unknown distribution. In this paper, we first establish a generalization bound that explicitly considers the adaptivity gap. Our bound motivates two strategies to reduce the gap: the first one is ensembling multiple classifiers to enrich the hypothesis space, then we propose effective gap estimation methods for guiding the selection of a better hypothesis for the target. The other method is minimizing the gap directly by adapting model parameters using online target samples. We thus propose Domain-specific Risk Minimization (DRM). During training, DRM models the distributions of different source domains separately; for inference, DRM performs online model steering using the source hypothesis for each arriving target sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRM for domain generalization with the following advantages: 1) it significantly outperforms competitive baselines on different distributional shift settings; 2) it achieves either comparable or superior accuracies on all source domains compared to vanilla empirical risk minimization; 3) it remains simple and efficient during training, and 4) it is complementary to invariant learning approaches.

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

Term frequency is a common method for identifying the importance of a term in a query or document. But it is a weak signal, especially when the frequency distribution is flat, such as in long queries or short documents where the text is of sentence/passage-length. This paper proposes a Deep Contextualized Term Weighting framework that learns to map BERT's contextualized text representations to context-aware term weights for sentences and passages. When applied to passages, DeepCT-Index produces term weights that can be stored in an ordinary inverted index for passage retrieval. When applied to query text, DeepCT-Query generates a weighted bag-of-words query. Both types of term weight can be used directly by typical first-stage retrieval algorithms. This is novel because most deep neural network based ranking models have higher computational costs, and thus are restricted to later-stage rankers. Experiments on four datasets demonstrate that DeepCT's deep contextualized text understanding greatly improves the accuracy of first-stage retrieval algorithms.

The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy.

Creating plausible surfaces is an essential component in achieving a high degree of realism in rendering. To relieve artists, who create these surfaces in a time-consuming, manual process, automated retrieval of the spatially-varying Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (SVBRDF) from a single mobile phone image is desirable. By leveraging a deep neural network, this casual capturing method can be achieved. The trained network can estimate per pixel normal, base color, metallic and roughness parameters from the Disney BRDF. The input image is taken with a mobile phone lit by the camera flash. The network is trained to compensate for environment lighting and thus learned to reduce artifacts introduced by other light sources. These losses contain a multi-scale discriminator with an additional perceptual loss, a rendering loss using a differentiable renderer, and a parameter loss. Besides the local precision, this loss formulation generates material texture maps which are globally more consistent. The network is set up as a generator network trained in an adversarial fashion to ensure that only plausible maps are produced. The estimated parameters not only reproduce the material faithfully in rendering but capture the style of hand-authored materials due to the more global loss terms compared to previous works without requiring additional post-processing. Both the resolution and the quality is improved.

Identifying Out-of-distribution (OOD) data is becoming increasingly critical as the real-world applications of deep learning methods expand. Post-hoc methods modify softmax scores fine-tuned on outlier data or leverage intermediate feature layers to identify distinctive patterns between In-Distribution (ID) and OOD samples. Other methods focus on employing diverse OOD samples to learn discrepancies between ID and OOD. These techniques, however, are typically dependent on the quality of the outlier samples assumed. Density-based methods explicitly model class-conditioned distributions but this requires long training time or retraining the classifier. To tackle these issues, we introduce FlowCon, a new density-based OOD detection technique. Our main innovation lies in efficiently combining the properties of normalizing flow with supervised contrastive learning, ensuring robust representation learning with tractable density estimation. Empirical evaluation shows the enhanced performance of our method across common vision datasets such as CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 pretrained on ResNet18 and WideResNet classifiers. We also perform quantitative analysis using likelihood plots and qualitative visualization using UMAP embeddings and demonstrate the robustness of the proposed method under various OOD contexts. Code will be open-sourced post decision.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Monocular Depth Estimation (MDE) is essential for applications like 3D scene reconstruction, autonomous navigation, and AI content creation. However, robust MDE remains challenging due to noisy real-world data and distribution gaps in synthetic datasets. Existing methods often struggle with low efficiency, reduced accuracy, and lack of detail. To address this, we propose an efficient approach for leveraging diffusion priors and introduce FiffDepth, a framework that transforms diffusion-based image generators into a feedforward architecture for detailed depth estimation. By preserving key generative features and integrating the strong generalization capabilities of models like dinov2, FiffDepth achieves enhanced accuracy, stability, and fine-grained detail, offering a significant improvement in MDE performance across diverse real-world scenarios.

The current interacting hand (IH) datasets are relatively simplistic in terms of background and texture, with hand joints being annotated by a machine annotator, which may result in inaccuracies, and the diversity of pose distribution is limited. However, the variability of background, pose distribution, and texture can greatly influence the generalization ability. Therefore, we present a large-scale synthetic dataset RenderIH for interacting hands with accurate and diverse pose annotations. The dataset contains 1M photo-realistic images with varied backgrounds, perspectives, and hand textures. To generate natural and diverse interacting poses, we propose a new pose optimization algorithm. Additionally, for better pose estimation accuracy, we introduce a transformer-based pose estimation network, TransHand, to leverage the correlation between interacting hands and verify the effectiveness of RenderIH in improving results. Our dataset is model-agnostic and can improve more accuracy of any hand pose estimation method in comparison to other real or synthetic datasets. Experiments have shown that pretraining on our synthetic data can significantly decrease the error from 6.76mm to 5.79mm, and our Transhand surpasses contemporary methods. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/adwardlee/RenderIH.

Detecting and localizing leaks in water distribution network systems is an important topic with direct environmental, economic, and social impact. Our paper is the first to explore the use of factor graph optimization techniques for leak localization in water distribution networks, enabling us to perform sensor fusion between pressure and demand sensor readings and to estimate the network's temporal and structural state evolution across all network nodes. The methodology introduces specific water network factors and proposes a new architecture composed of two factor graphs: a leak-free state estimation factor graph and a leak localization factor graph. When a new sensor reading is obtained, unlike Kalman and other interpolation-based methods, which estimate only the current network state, factor graphs update both current and past states. Results on Modena, L-TOWN and synthetic networks show that factor graphs are much faster than nonlinear Kalman-based alternatives such as the UKF, while also providing improvements in localization compared to state-of-the-art estimation-localization approaches. Implementation and benchmarks are available at https://github.com/pirofti/FGLL.

Estimating single-cell responses across various perturbations facilitates the identification of key genes and enhances drug screening, significantly boosting experimental efficiency. However, single-cell sequencing is a destructive process, making it impossible to capture the same cell's phenotype before and after perturbation. Consequently, data collected under perturbed and unperturbed conditions are inherently unpaired. Existing methods either attempt to forcibly pair unpaired data using random sampling, or neglect the inherent relationship between unperturbed and perturbed cells during the modeling. In this work, we propose a framework based on Dual Diffusion Implicit Bridges (DDIB) to learn the mapping between different data distributions, effectively addressing the challenge of unpaired data. We further interpret this framework as a form of data augmentation. We integrate gene regulatory network (GRN) information to propagate perturbation signals in a biologically meaningful way, and further incorporate a masking mechanism to predict silent genes, improving the quality of generated profiles. Moreover, gene expression under the same perturbation often varies significantly across cells, frequently exhibiting a bimodal distribution that reflects intrinsic heterogeneity. To capture this, we introduce a more suitable evaluation metric. We propose Unlasting, dual conditional diffusion models that overcome the problem of unpaired single-cell perturbation data and strengthen the model's insight into perturbations under the guidance of the GRN, with a dedicated mask model designed to improve generation quality by predicting silent genes. In addition, we introduce a biologically grounded evaluation metric that better reflects the inherent heterogeneity in single-cell responses.

Object pose estimation, which plays a vital role in robotics, augmented reality, and autonomous driving, has been of great interest in computer vision. Existing studies either require multi-stage pose regression or rely on 2D-3D feature matching. Though these approaches have shown promising results, they rely heavily on appearance information, requiring complex input (i.e., multi-view reference input, depth, or CAD models) and intricate pipeline (i.e., feature extraction-SfM-2D to 3D matching-PnP). We propose AxisPose, a model-free, matching-free, single-shot solution for robust 6D pose estimation, which fundamentally diverges from the existing paradigm. Unlike existing methods that rely on 2D-3D or 2D-2D matching using 3D techniques, such as SfM and PnP, AxisPose directly infers a robust 6D pose from a single view by leveraging a diffusion model to learn the latent axis distribution of objects without reference views. Specifically, AxisPose constructs an Axis Generation Module (AGM) to capture the latent geometric distribution of object axes through a diffusion model. The diffusion process is guided by injecting the gradient of geometric consistency loss into the noise estimation to maintain the geometric consistency of the generated tri-axis. With the generated tri-axis projection, AxisPose further adopts a Triaxial Back-projection Module (TBM) to recover the 6D pose from the object tri-axis. The proposed AxisPose achieves robust performance at the cross-instance level (i.e., one model for N instances) using only a single view as input without reference images, with great potential for generalization to unseen-object level.

In this work, we explore uncertainty estimation as a proxy for correctness in LLM-generated code. To this end, we adapt two state-of-the-art techniques from natural language generation -- one based on entropy and another on mutual information -- to the domain of code generation. Given the distinct semantic properties of code, we introduce modifications, including a semantic equivalence check based on symbolic execution. Our findings indicate a strong correlation between the uncertainty computed through these techniques and correctness, highlighting the potential of uncertainty estimation for quality assessment. Additionally, we propose a simplified version of the entropy-based method that assumes a uniform distribution over the LLM's responses, demonstrating comparable effectiveness. Using these techniques, we develop an abstention policy that prevents the model from making predictions when uncertainty is high, reducing incorrect outputs to near zero. Our evaluation on the LiveCodeBench shows that our approach significantly outperforms a baseline relying solely on LLM-reported log-probabilities.

Histograms provide a powerful means of summarizing large data sets by representing their distribution in a compact, binned form. The HistogramTools R package enhances R built-in histogram functionality, offering advanced methods for manipulating and analyzing histograms, especially in large-scale data environments. Key features include the ability to serialize histograms using Protocol Buffers for distributed computing tasks, tools for merging and modifying histograms, and techniques for measuring and visualizing information loss in histogram representations. The package is particularly suited for environments utilizing MapReduce, where efficient storage and data sharing are critical. This paper presents various methods of histogram bin manipulation, distance measures, quantile approximation, and error estimation in cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) derived from histograms. Visualization techniques and efficient storage representations are also discussed alongside applications for large data processing and distributed computing tasks.

We present Mantis Shrimp, a multi-survey deep learning model for photometric redshift estimation that fuses ultra-violet (GALEX), optical (PanSTARRS), and infrared (UnWISE) imagery. Machine learning is now an established approach for photometric redshift estimation, with generally acknowledged higher performance in areas with a high density of spectroscopically identified galaxies over template-based methods. Multiple works have shown that image-based convolutional neural networks can outperform tabular-based color/magnitude models. In comparison to tabular models, image models have additional design complexities: it is largely unknown how to fuse inputs from different instruments which have different resolutions or noise properties. The Mantis Shrimp model estimates the conditional density estimate of redshift using cutout images. The density estimates are well calibrated and the point estimates perform well in the distribution of available spectroscopically confirmed galaxies with (bias = 1e-2), scatter (NMAD = 2.44e-2) and catastrophic outlier rate (eta=17.53%). We find that early fusion approaches (e.g., resampling and stacking images from different instruments) match the performance of late fusion approaches (e.g., concatenating latent space representations), so that the design choice ultimately is left to the user. Finally, we study how the models learn to use information across bands, finding evidence that our models successfully incorporates information from all surveys. The applicability of our model to the analysis of large populations of galaxies is limited by the speed of downloading cutouts from external servers; however, our model could be useful in smaller studies such as generating priors over redshift for stellar population synthesis.

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

Monocular depth estimation (MDE) is a fundamental topic of geometric computer vision and a core technique for many downstream applications. Recently, several methods reframe the MDE as a classification-regression problem where a linear combination of probabilistic distribution and bin centers is used to predict depth. In this paper, we propose a novel concept of iterative elastic bins (IEBins) for the classification-regression-based MDE. The proposed IEBins aims to search for high-quality depth by progressively optimizing the search range, which involves multiple stages and each stage performs a finer-grained depth search in the target bin on top of its previous stage. To alleviate the possible error accumulation during the iterative process, we utilize a novel elastic target bin to replace the original target bin, the width of which is adjusted elastically based on the depth uncertainty. Furthermore, we develop a dedicated framework composed of a feature extractor and an iterative optimizer that has powerful temporal context modeling capabilities benefiting from the GRU-based architecture. Extensive experiments on the KITTI, NYU-Depth-v2 and SUN RGB-D datasets demonstrate that the proposed method surpasses prior state-of-the-art competitors. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/ShuweiShao/IEBins.

We study the problem of temporal-difference-based policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. In particular, we analyse the use of a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm, quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), for this task. We reach the surprising conclusion that even if a practitioner has no interest in the return distribution beyond the mean, QTD (which learns predictions about the full distribution of returns) may offer performance superior to approaches such as classical TD learning, which predict only the mean return, even in the tabular setting.

While efficient distribution learning is no doubt behind the groundbreaking success of diffusion modeling, its theoretical guarantees are quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous analysis on approximation and generalization abilities of diffusion modeling for well-known function spaces. The highlight of this paper is that when the true density function belongs to the Besov space and the empirical score matching loss is properly minimized, the generated data distribution achieves the nearly minimax optimal estimation rates in the total variation distance and in the Wasserstein distance of order one. Furthermore, we extend our theory to demonstrate how diffusion models adapt to low-dimensional data distributions. We expect these results advance theoretical understandings of diffusion modeling and its ability to generate verisimilar outputs.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

As multimodal foundational models start being deployed experimentally in Self-Driving cars, a reasonable question we ask ourselves is how similar to humans do these systems respond in certain driving situations -- especially those that are out-of-distribution? To study this, we create the Robusto-1 dataset that uses dashcam video data from Peru, a country with one of the worst (aggressive) drivers in the world, a high traffic index, and a high ratio of bizarre to non-bizarre street objects likely never seen in training. In particular, to preliminarly test at a cognitive level how well Foundational Visual Language Models (VLMs) compare to Humans in Driving, we move away from bounding boxes, segmentation maps, occupancy maps or trajectory estimation to multi-modal Visual Question Answering (VQA) comparing both humans and machines through a popular method in systems neuroscience known as Representational Similarity Analysis (RSA). Depending on the type of questions we ask and the answers these systems give, we will show in what cases do VLMs and Humans converge or diverge allowing us to probe on their cognitive alignment. We find that the degree of alignment varies significantly depending on the type of questions asked to each type of system (Humans vs VLMs), highlighting a gap in their alignment.

Recovering camera poses from a set of images is a foundational task in 3D computer vision, which powers key applications such as 3D scene/object reconstructions. Classic methods often depend on feature correspondence, such as keypoints, which require the input images to have large overlap and small viewpoint changes. Such requirements present considerable challenges in scenarios with sparse views. Recent data-driven approaches aim to directly output camera poses, either through regressing the 6DoF camera poses or formulating rotation as a probability distribution. However, each approach has its limitations. On one hand, directly regressing the camera poses can be ill-posed, since it assumes a single mode, which is not true under symmetry and leads to sub-optimal solutions. On the other hand, probabilistic approaches are capable of modeling the symmetry ambiguity, yet they sample the entire space of rotation uniformly by brute-force. This leads to an inevitable trade-off between high sample density, which improves model precision, and sample efficiency that determines the runtime. In this paper, we propose ADen to unify the two frameworks by employing a generator and a discriminator: the generator is trained to output multiple hypotheses of 6DoF camera pose to represent a distribution and handle multi-mode ambiguity, and the discriminator is trained to identify the hypothesis that best explains the data. This allows ADen to combine the best of both worlds, achieving substantially higher precision as well as lower runtime than previous methods in empirical evaluations.

Domain adaptation methods for 2D human pose estimation typically require continuous access to the source data during adaptation, which can be challenging due to privacy, memory, or computational constraints. To address this limitation, we focus on the task of source-free domain adaptation for pose estimation, where a source model must adapt to a new target domain using only unlabeled target data. Although recent advances have introduced source-free methods for classification tasks, extending them to the regression task of pose estimation is non-trivial. In this paper, we present Prior-guided Self-training (POST), a pseudo-labeling approach that builds on the popular Mean Teacher framework to compensate for the distribution shift. POST leverages prediction-level and feature-level consistency between a student and teacher model against certain image transformations. In the absence of source data, POST utilizes a human pose prior that regularizes the adaptation process by directing the model to generate more accurate and anatomically plausible pose pseudo-labels. Despite being simple and intuitive, our framework can deliver significant performance gains compared to applying the source model directly to the target data, as demonstrated in our extensive experiments and ablation studies. In fact, our approach achieves comparable performance to recent state-of-the-art methods that use source data for adaptation.

We study the sparse recovery problem with an underdetermined linear system characterized by a Kronecker-structured dictionary and a Kronecker-supported sparse vector. We cast this problem into the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework and rely on the expectation-maximization method for a solution. To this end, we model the Kronecker-structured support with a hierarchical Gaussian prior distribution parameterized by a Kronecker-structured hyperparameter, leading to a non-convex optimization problem. The optimization problem is solved using the alternating minimization (AM) method and a singular value decomposition (SVD)-based method, resulting in two algorithms. Further, we analytically guarantee that the AM-based method converges to the stationary point of the SBL cost function. The SVD-based method, though it adopts approximations, is empirically shown to be more efficient and accurate. We then apply our algorithm to estimate the uplink wireless channel in an intelligent reflecting surface-aided MIMO system and extend the AM-based algorithm to address block sparsity in the channel. We also study the SBL cost to show that the minima of the cost function are achieved at sparse solutions and that incorporating the Kronecker structure reduces the number of local minima of the SBL cost function. Our numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms compared to the state-of-the-art.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

Recent advances in monocular depth estimation have been made by incorporating natural language as additional guidance. Although yielding impressive results, the impact of the language prior, particularly in terms of generalization and robustness, remains unexplored. In this paper, we address this gap by quantifying the impact of this prior and introduce methods to benchmark its effectiveness across various settings. We generate "low-level" sentences that convey object-centric, three-dimensional spatial relationships, incorporate them as additional language priors and evaluate their downstream impact on depth estimation. Our key finding is that current language-guided depth estimators perform optimally only with scene-level descriptions and counter-intuitively fare worse with low level descriptions. Despite leveraging additional data, these methods are not robust to directed adversarial attacks and decline in performance with an increase in distribution shift. Finally, to provide a foundation for future research, we identify points of failures and offer insights to better understand these shortcomings. With an increasing number of methods using language for depth estimation, our findings highlight the opportunities and pitfalls that require careful consideration for effective deployment in real-world settings

Failure of machine learning models to generalize to new data is a core problem limiting the reliability of AI systems, partly due to the lack of simple and robust methods for comparing new data to the original training dataset. We propose a standardized approach for assessing data similarity in a model-agnostic manner by constructing a supervised autoencoder for generalizability estimation (SAGE). We compare points in a low-dimensional embedded latent space, defining empirical probability measures for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) distance, reconstruction of inputs and task-based performance. As proof of concept for classification tasks, we use MNIST and CIFAR-10 to demonstrate how an ensemble output probability score can separate deformed images from a mixture of typical test examples, and how this SAGE score is robust to transformations of increasing severity. As further proof of concept, we extend this approach to a regression task using non-imaging data (UCI Abalone). In all cases, we show that out-of-the-box model performance increases after SAGE score filtering, even when applied to data from the model's own training and test datasets. Our out-of-distribution scoring method can be introduced during several steps of model construction and assessment, leading to future improvements in responsible deep learning implementation.

Quality Estimation (QE) is estimating the quality of model output when the ground truth reference is not available. Looking at model uncertainty from its own output probabilities is the most trivial and low-effort way to estimate the output quality. However, for generative model, output probabilities might not be the best quality estimator. At an output step, there can be multiple correct options, making the probability distribution spread out more. Thus, lower token probability does not necessarily mean lower output quality. In other words, the model can be considered underconfident. In this paper, we propose a QE approach called Dominant Mass Probability (DMP}, that boosts the model confidence in cases where there are multiple viable output options. We show that, with no increase in complexity, DMP is notably better than sequence probability when estimating the quality of different models (Whisper, Llama, etc.) on different tasks (translation, summarization, etc.). Compared to sequence probability, DMP achieves on average +0.208 improvement in Pearson correlation to ground-truth quality.

Accurate battery capacity estimation is key to alleviating consumer concerns about battery performance and reliability of electric vehicles (EVs). However, practical data limitations imposed by stringent privacy regulations and labeled data shortages hamper the development of generalizable capacity estimation models that remain robust to real-world data distribution shifts. While self-supervised learning can leverage unlabeled data, existing techniques are not particularly designed to learn effectively from challenging field data -- let alone from privacy-friendly data, which are often less feature-rich and noisier. In this work, we propose a first-of-its-kind capacity estimation model based on self-supervised pre-training, developed on a large-scale dataset of privacy-friendly charging data snippets from real-world EV operations. Our pre-training framework, snippet similarity-weighted masked input reconstruction, is designed to learn rich, generalizable representations even from less feature-rich and fragmented privacy-friendly data. Our key innovation lies in harnessing contrastive learning to first capture high-level similarities among fragmented snippets that otherwise lack meaningful context. With our snippet-wise contrastive learning and subsequent similarity-weighted masked reconstruction, we are able to learn rich representations of both granular charging patterns within individual snippets and high-level associative relationships across different snippets. Bolstered by this rich representation learning, our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving 31.9% lower test error than the best-performing benchmark, even under challenging domain-shifted settings affected by both manufacturer and age-induced distribution shifts. Source code is available at https://github.com/en-research/GenEVBattery.